Political Turmoil Expected to influence Gold
Gold turned negative on Tuesday as U.S. Treasuries rose after the United States and Mexico struck a trade deal, with analysts saying ongoing U.S.-China tensions would continue to weigh. Spot gold lost 0.4 percent to $1,206.39 per ounce during Tuesdays trading hours.
Following suit, Gold price fell on Thursday and is set to record a fifth monthly fall on expectations of a higher interest rate, while the dollar also edged lower. Powell’s speech came after U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier this month that he was “not thrilled” about the Fed’s decision to hike rates. A potential hike in interest rates in general decreases demand for gold, which yields no interests.
Meanwhile, the U.S. reported on Wednesday the strongest growth of its second-quarter GDP in a decade, expanding at an annual rate of 4.2%.
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in September and December following last week’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell defended policy of interest rate hikes, adding that he expected a low but gradual growth of interest rates as inflation is reaching the country’s 2% target.
On the other hand, metals investors are wondering if political turmoil could bring in volatility several for gold and silver prices.
Furthermore, what gained focus over the week were the recent prosecutions of prominent Trump campaign figures that now have Democrats giddy over the possibility of being handed grounds for impeachment. The chances for impeachment did get a boost, although it would seem to hinge primarily on whether the Republicans lose the House and Senate in November. It’s a very daunting political task. Only two presidents have ever been impeached – Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton. Neither were convicted in the Senate and removed from office, however. That can only be done with a ⅔ majority vote.
If the threat of impeachment somehow becomes more credible based on the revelation of more serious crimes, then all bets are off. It will move markets. But, for now at least, it remains a long shot.
Major political turmoil is just one of many reasons to buy insurance in the form of gold and silver bullion. Investors can add upheaval in Washington to a longer list, which, at the moment, also includes:
- Precious metals looking oversold.
- Extremely bullish relative positioning of banks versus speculators in the Commitment of Traders data.