Long term drivers remain intact for gold

GOLD turned quite bearish over past few days , as the USD surged higher, after losing a lot of ground in the previous weeks. There was not much change in the market sentiment, so the move didn’t come from Gold, but from the USD, since the Buck made some strong gains against all other instruments.

Gold ended a remarkable nine-week rally, as it declined for the first time since June. The yellow metal briefly fell below $1,900 an ounce last Wednesday as stocks neared their all-time closing high and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped on record supply. Wednesday’s $38 billion auction of 10-year government bonds was the largest in U.S. history. The troy ounce of the precious metal closed the week with small losses at $1,940.

Gold dropped to its lowest in over a week and was on its way for a  second straight weekly decline on Friday, as a strong rebound in the dollar and a resurgence in U.S. business activity hurt bullion’s shine.

Prices have witnessed a wave like movement over the week due to

  • weak positioning
  • delayed stimulus package agreement
  • a bounce in the U.S. dollar and
  • real rates

Gold reached its life time high but then consolidated last week as news surrounded the onset of corona virus vaccine. Adding to this positive news, were signs of improving global economies as all have entered the unlock phase and reviving towards the path of growth.  Bullions posted consecutive weekly losses for the first time since June. On Monday it headed towards the third decline.

US markets rallied over Trumps statement of extending support to the economy.

So, USD index also showed signs of pull back to take out big resistance area at 93.30-93.50.

Gold prices are quoted lower once more at $1926 an ounce on Tuesday, pressured by a more robust U.S. Dollar. 

This week we have important data releases which might change the momentum for gold- positive or negative would depend on the following numbers-

  • second-quarter GDP data from Germany
  • Durable Goods Orders will be featured in the US economic docket
  • Jerome Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, will be discussing the Fed’s monetary policy framework in his opening remarks.

The price of gold consolidated after trading to a fresh record high ($2075) in August, but the macroeconomic environment may keep the precious metal afloat as the Federal Reserve appears to be on track to retain the current policy at the next interest rate decision on September 16.

Despite the correction, gold continues to remain bullish over the following drivers-

Inflation- Historically, inflation has been constructive for the gold price. As the purchasing power of the dollar falls, savers and investors may seek other, more reliable stores of value, including the yellow metal.

Debasement of currency-  when a lot of money is printed, the dollar gets devalued and gold rises against the dollar. Gold rallied while debasing the currency as we are printing trillions and trillions of dollars to spur the economy. In the process the dollar comes under pressure and strengthened gold

Interest rates-  Falling real yields and a weakening USD have seen investor demand surge. We see this demand remaining strong for the foreseeable future amid a challenging macro backdrop. The expansion of central banks’ balance sheets shows no sign of abating, while US-China tensions escalate.

This should see interest rates remain low, leaving further upside to gold prices. It’s important to keep in mind, though, that the metal’s long-term drivers remain intact. We have unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, with more potentially on the way.

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