Fresh Breakout levels for gold
Precious metal prices have had a very strong year.
Gold rose substantially above our year-end forecasts of USD 1,400 an ounce.
Gold prices were supported by a general shift in monetary policy of major central banks from tightening to a new round of easing, a decline in government bond yields, an increase in the amount of negative yielding government bonds, weakness in the Chinese Yuan, uncertainty on global growth and global trade front, and Brexit uncertainty.
The majorly influential factor for the yellow metal was the US China trade dispute. Almost the entire calendar year of 2019 stretched over this news for the global financial markets.
But this week we saw so many twists and turns regarding this matter.
First Trump entered in the fray. He dumped US China trade deal and said that it will happen only post US election in October 2020. The biggest losers over this news were DOW and US 10y and obviously the gold prices rallied and crossed$1475 which happened nearly after 4-5 weeks. (inversely proportional to the dollar)
But this was just not enough, when we saw a real example being set in the books of history at least pertaining to US china trade deal. On one side there was news that any trade dispute development will happen only after October/November 2020, while on the other hand there were news in the market on Wednesday that a US China trade deal will happen soon.
This uncertain news created a much ascertained volatility in the precious metals markets. This move is further expected to boost gold traders again fro lows. Once we saw the worst 1 decade monthly ADP jobs data reported at 67k a day. So its tight rope for these $1475-$1480 bracket on recent gold breakout. Once see a departure and sink below $1470 this will be extremely negative for the gold prices. However, till it survives $1470 broadly it’s headed for $1495-$1500.
Gold is expected to rally above $1480 and silver above $17.20. These can be considered fresh breakout levels.
We expect the US dollar to weaken modestly because of deterioration in longer-term fundamentals and weakness in near-term cyclical dynamics. Gold tends to rally when the dollar declines and we think this relationship will hold in the coming years.
Precious metal prices have rallied strongly. Long term outlook for gold is positive. But wait for a correction to position for higher prices.